The global DRAM market has entered a stage of structural transition. The top four original equipment manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and China's Changxin Storage, have finalized the end of life (EOL) plan for DDR4 products, accelerating the shift of production capacity to advanced process products such as DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The supply and demand structure of the memory market is facing drastic changes.

According to the EOL schedule obtained from the original manufacturer through the supply link, Samsung will complete the final order for DDR4 chips in June 2025 and complete the module shipment in mid-to-early December of the same year. SK Hynix estimates that it will stop accepting orders in October 2025 and complete the final shipment in April 2026.

Micron notified customers in early June 2025 that its DDR4 will enter the EOL stage and is expected to stop shipments in the first quarter of 2026. After the three major memory manufacturers have transferred all their production capacity to DDR5 and HBM, very little capacity of the old process has been released.

Industry insiders pointed out that it is worth noting that Micron's production line will switch to 12nm process. After the production line of the Taiwan factory is cleared, the equipment will be moved back to the United States. The transition period in the middle will cause a supply window period.

As the world's fourth largest DRAM original manufacturer, Changxin Storage of China plans to complete the last shipment of DDR4 in the fourth quarter of 2025, and focus on products such as DDR5 in the future to support local demand.

Industry analysts believe that this wave of EOL covers major application areas such as consumer, mobile devices, personal computers and data centers, and only a few automotive and industrial control specifications will continue to be produced. With the top four suppliers simultaneously reducing production significantly, the market expects that the DDR4 supply and demand situation will continue until 2026.

According to market research, the spot price of DDR4 has already inverted in early June. The spot price of DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 was officially higher than that of DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 on June 6, and the inversion rate was as high as 30.3%.

Based on historical experience, this inversion phenomenon is expected to last for three to five months until the PC and server markets are upgraded and the demand for DDR4 versions is significantly reduced.

Industry analysts believe that the DDR4 EOL action jointly led by the top four original manufacturers symbolizes the overall transition of the industry technology generation, and also marks that DDR5 and HBM have officially taken over as the mainstream.

For downstream system manufacturers and terminal brands, supply strategies, order transfer timing and price risk control will be important observation points in the second half of the year.

DRAM prices are about to soar

DRAM prices are expected to rise sharply in the third quarter of 2025, by up to 45%, depending on the product, according to TrendForce. The price surge will reportedly be driven by capacity reallocation, product obsolescence, and AI server demand and seasonal consumption trends. Notably, memory types that are about to be obsoleted will experience the highest increases. However, TrendForce's analysis does not take into account the 25% import tariff imposed by the United States on products from Japan and South Korea.

TrendForce predicts that prices for DDR5, the most popular mainstream DRAM type currently used in client and server applications, will rise modestly by 3% to 8%, while prices for LPDDR5X, used in mobile devices, are expected to rise by 5% to 10% due to seasonal restocking and supply constraints. GDDR7 is still in the early adoption stage, but production is rapidly increasing. GDDR7 prices are expected to rise less sharply, at 0% to 5%, as suppliers begin to reallocate GDDR6 capacity to support next-generation GPUs.

In contrast, prices for previous-generation memory will rise sharply. DDR4 prices are set to rise sharply as supply tightens and major DRAM manufacturers initiate production stoppages. According to TrendForce, PC DDR4 prices will rise by 38% to 43%, and server DDR4 prices will rise by 28% to 33%. LPDDR4X is expected to rise by 23% to 28% as it faces a rapid supply gap and strong restocking demand. GDDR6 prices will also rise sharply by 28% to 33% as suppliers shift their focus to GDDR7, which will cause short-term shortages during the period of continued GPU restocking.

It is worth noting that GDDR6 is currently adopted by AMD's latest generation Radeon RX 9060/9070 series products, as well as entry-level and previous-generation graphics cards from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia. All of these expansion cards are aimed at price-sensitive segments, so it remains to be seen how the GDDR6 price hike will affect pricing for AMD's latest Radeon RX 9060/9070 series, as well as cheaper graphics cards based on AMD, Intel, or Nvidia GPUs.

TrendForce also expects prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to rise 15% to 20% in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting strong demand for data center AI accelerators. This marks a significant acceleration from the 5% to 10% increase seen last quarter, likely driven by strong demand for Nvidia's B300 series AI GPUs, which feature 288GB of HBM3E memory (versus 192GB of HBM3E memory for Nvidia's B200 series processors).

TrendForce estimates that HBM's share of the total DRAM market is also slowly rising, from 9% in the second quarter to 10%, reflecting the increasing adoption of HBM3E and the popularity of AMD and Nvidia's latest AI accelerators (MI350X, B300/Blackwell Ultra), especially those equipped with 288GB HBM3E memory.

It is worth noting that the PC DRAM market is facing dual pressures from demand and geopolitical factors. Some OEMs are rushing orders in anticipation of an increase in US import tariffs, but major DRAM manufacturers have reduced PC DRAM production in favor of server-grade and HBM products. Given that Japan and South Korea will impose a 25% tariff on all types of memory starting August 1, it is inevitable that PC DRAM (including DDR, GDDR, and LPDDR) prices will rise sharply starting next month. Server DRAM will face the same situation, although the tariffs may affect server memory a little later than PC memory.

Source: Content from the Commercial Times

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