Has chip demand recovered? Let's take a look at the terminal situation.

Electronics production in Asia

Electronics production in major Asian countries has grown steadily over the past few months. In April 2025, China's three-month average change in electronic production from the same period last year (3/12) was 11.5%, higher than 9.5% in January, but lower than the three-month average change of 12% in 2024. India had the strongest growth, with production of 15% in March, up from 3% six months earlier. South Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia also saw an acceleration in the three-month average production growth in April.

U.S. electronics production growth has accelerated over the past six months, with 3/12 output increasing by 4.6% in April 2025, up from 0.4% in October 2024 and the highest increase since November 2022. 

The increase in U.S. production may be partly due to companies ramping up production at U.S. factories as imports are threatened with tariffs. Japan's 3/12 output averaged 4.5% in the last three months to February 2025, after being below 1% or negative for much of 2024. EU27 3/12 output grew by 2.8% in March 2025, while UK 3/12 output grew by zero in April 2025.

Although China's total electronic product production in the first four months of 2025 increased by 10% or more in RMB terms, the production data for specific devices show different trends. In April 2025, personal computer (PC) production increased by 4.2%. Although lower than the previous two months, PC production has been on an upward trend since -2% in November 2024. In April, color TV production was -2.2%, a sharp drop from 12.5% in December 2024. Smartphone production has been negative since January 2025, while the average growth rate in several months in 2024 was 10%.

In April 2025, U.S. smartphone imports fell sharply to 7.6 million units, down 45% from 14 million units in March. Imports from China fell 61% to 2.1 million units in April from 5.4 million units in March. Imports from India fell 47% and imports from Vietnam fell 14%. In April, India was the largest source of U.S. smartphone imports, with imports of 3 million units, followed by Vietnam with 2.4 million units and China with 2.1 million units. Apple has been increasing iPhone production in India to replace production in China. Most of Samsung's smartphones are produced in Vietnam.

The decline in smartphone imports to the United States and the shift of production from China to other countries are primarily due to tariffs imposed or threatened by the Trump administration. The proposed tariffs are inconsistent. In 2025, President Trump made the following statement regarding tariffs on Chinese imports and smartphones:

• March 4: 20% tariff on Chinese imports

• April 2: Increase tariffs to 34%

• April 9: Increase tariffs to 145%

• April 11: Exempt smartphones from tariffs

• May 12: Reduce tariffs on Chinese imports to 30%

• May 23: Propose 25% tariff on imported smartphones by the end of June

  
  

These trends in smartphone production and imports will soon have a significant impact on the U.S. smartphone market. Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple's iPhone sales in the U.S. grew 27% year-over-year in April-May 2025. Counterpoint questions whether the strong U.S. sales are because consumers are buying now out of fear of future tariffs.

U.S. smartphone inventories may soon run out, leading to product shortages and price increases. We will see these effects in the coming months.

Source: Content compiled from semiwiki.

View more at EASELINK