The global memory market has entered a period of drastic changes! According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics has officially notified customers that it will terminate the production of 1z process 8Gb LPDDR4 memory (EOL, End of Life) in April 2025, and requires customers to complete the last buy order (Last Buy Order, LBO) before June, and it is expected to complete shipments by October at the latest.

Industry analysts analyzed that this is mainly because the LPDDR4 used in low-end mobile phones in mainland China has been taken away by mainland factories, and Samsung will focus more on high-end products above LPDDR5 in the future.

This move also announced that the DRAM product structure has been reshuffled, and it reflects that Korean original factories are accelerating the shift of production capacity to high-end products, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DDR5.

Taiwanese memory

Taiwanese memory factories are expected to benefit from Samsung's discontinuation of DDR4 because their main products are DDR4.

Industry insiders pointed out that as early as several months ago, it was reported that Samsung intended to stop production of some DDR4 products. The main reasons include: 1. To concentrate resources on the more profitable HBM and DDR5 product lines; 2. The Chinese factories continued to expand DDR4 production capacity and adopted a low-price market strategy, which led to intensified market competition and profit compression.

In addition, the global market is also disturbed by geopolitical factors. On April 9, US President Trump launched a reciprocal tariff mechanism, intending to impose a 32% tariff on memory modules and SSD products exported from Taiwan to the United States.

Although wafer and bare crystal HBM, DDR and NAND are not included in this wave of taxation, the demand for terminal module products may be suppressed, further dragging down the performance of the global consumer memory market.

According to the latest forecast of research institutions, in a neutral scenario, the annual growth rate of global memory bit demand in 2025 will be revised down from the original estimate of 12.8% to 4.8%; and in a bear market scenario, it will drop to 3.5%.

In the NAND market, although the current spot price is close to the manufacturing cost, fortunately, the original factory has launched a 10% to 20% capacity adjustment plan, which can still maintain profitability and price stability.

On the other hand, Chinese factories are actively entering the high-end memory market, bringing challenges to traditional giants.

At present, global DRAM and NAND capital expenditures remain conservative, and the overall supply chain will face fierce competition from Chinese mainland manufacturers and the risk of increased US reciprocal tariff policies.

Overall, the industry believes that the short-term price of the memory market will be supported by stocking and supply contraction, but in the medium and long term, it is still necessary to pay attention to the progress of production expansion in mainland China, the direction of US tariff policies and the capital expenditure strategy of the original factory.

Previous report: Two major factories will stop production

Earlier, the report pointed out that due to the influence of Chinese manufacturers, dynamic random access memory (DRAM) manufacturers Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix may stop producing DDR3 and DDR4 memory by the end of this year, and the supply of some consumer electronics may be affected, while Taiwanese manufacturers are expected to benefit.

The report said that Chinese DRAM manufacturers have been expanding DDR4 production while significantly reducing prices. At the end of last year, the price of DDR4 chips of these two companies was only half of that of similar products of Korean competitors.

The report said that memory manufacturers such as Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix will adjust their manufacturing structure and may no longer make profits by selling DDR4, and gradually phase out DDR4 and focus on manufacturing more profitable DDR5 and HBM.

However, the report said that the demand for DDR4 is quite strong. Although Chinese manufacturers have huge sales, their production capacity may not be able to meet the market. Once Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix stop producing DDR3 and DDR4 for the spot market, it is expected that in mid-2025, the supply of some entry-level PCs and consumer electronics may be affected by the shortage of DDR4.

The report said that Taiwanese manufacturers are expected to benefit because some customers will not choose DRAM made in China and may instead purchase specialized memory from Taiwanese manufacturers.

Source: Content from the Commercial Times

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